The Envelope Please:   Oscar Predictions 2015

Who Will Win, Who Deserves to Win, Who Was Snubbed

by Kam Williams          

While Selma’s Academy Awards stock plummeted in the wake of allegations of historical inaccuracies, that of American Sniper simultaneously skyrocketed, thanks to both booming box-office returns and very positive word of mouth. However, Sniper probably had too much ground to make up to catch Birdman, the early favorite in the Best Picture sweepstakes.

I see Birdman garnering 4 awards overall, followed by The Grand Budapest Hotel, with 3. The only other multiple winners will likely be Boyhood, Whiplash and The Theory of Everything, at 2 each.     

Faithful readers will remember that a year ago, yours truly accurately predicted the results in 21 of 21 categories (I skipped the short films), so anyone who used my picks in their office pool fared pretty well. However, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Besides forecasting the winners below, I also suggest which nominees are the most deserving. Furthermore, because some great performances are invariably overlooked by the Academy entirely, I also point out those who should’ve been nominated.

The 87th Academy Awards will air live on ABC this Sunday, February 22nd at 8:30 PM ET/5:30 PM PT, and will be hosted by Neil Patrick Harris.   

Best Picture    

Will Win: Birdman

Deserves to Win: Selma

Overlooked: Nightcrawler

Best Director

Will Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman)

Deserves to Win: Ava Duvernay (Selma)

Overlooked: Damien Chazelle (Whiplash)

Best Actor

Will Win: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

Deserves to Win: Michael Keaton (Birdman)

Overlooked: Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)

Best Actress

Will Win: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

Deserves to Win: Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)

Overlooked: Jennifer Aniston (Cake)

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

Deserves to Win: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

Overlooked: Rick Garcia (Nightcrawler)

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

Deserves to Win: Emma Stone (Birdman)

Overlooked: Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)  

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. and Armando Bo (Birdman)

Deserves to Win: Dan Gilroy (Nightcrawler)

Overlooked: Paul Webb (Selma)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Graham Moore (The Imitation Game)

Deserves to Win: Damien Chazelle (Whiplash)

Overlooked: Peter Landesman, Gary Webb and Nick Schou (Kill the Messenger)

Predictions for Secondary Categories

Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Foreign Language Film: Ida

Documentary Feature: Citizenfour

Cinematography: Birdman

Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Film Editing: Boyhood

Makeup and Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Original Score: The Theory of Everything

Best Song: Glory (Selma)

Sound Editing: American Sniper

Sound Mixing: Whiplash

Visual Effects: Interstellar